A founder sends eighty cold emails over three weeks and gets four replies. Two go nowhere, one is a courtesy call, one becomes a real conversation that dies at the partner meeting. The founder concludes the deck is broken and spends the next fortnight rebuilding it.

The list was the problem, and rebuilding the deck cannot fix a list.

Across 1,336 outreaches from 108 founders in the second quarter of this year, the pattern in our own data was blunt. When a deck stated its own facts plainly, 30% of outreaches got a reply. When it left those facts to be inferred, 7% did. Ninety percent of the rounds in progress came from the first group.

Clarity matters. The same report found that a curated, well-fit investor list more than doubled replies against a self-sourced one. A clear deck aimed at the wrong forty firms still has nothing to work with, because the arithmetic of a bad list is unforgiving in a way effort cannot overcome.

Why the list beats the deck

A seed raise is a funnel with five numbers: how many firms you contact, what share of them could plausibly invest in a company like yours, what share reply, what share take a second meeting, and what share write a check.

Founders push hard on the first number, because it is the only one that feels like effort. Sending more emails is visibly working. But the second number multiplies every number after it, and it is the one nobody measures.

Contact eighty firms where a quarter genuinely fit and you have twenty real conversations available to you. Contact eighty where a twentieth fit and you have four, and no amount of follow-up creates the sixteen that were never there. Same work, same deck, same founder. The difference sat in a spreadsheet before anyone opened an inbox.

The four filters, in order

Every investor database exposes sector and stage, so lists get sorted by those two fields first. They are the two filters that eliminate the fewest firms.

Here is the order that actually removes people.

Fund size. A fund’s check size divided by its ownership target is the highest valuation it can accept, and both of those numbers were set at fund formation. Raising $2M at a $10M post means your lead writes roughly $1.2M, which lands you in funds somewhere between $40M and $80M. A $250M fund writing $1.2M is deploying half a percent of its capital and cannot make it matter. A $15M fund writing it is putting 8% of everything into one bet, which its own rules usually forbid. Both pass, for opposite reasons, and neither will explain why.

Which risk they buy. Every round buys down one specific risk. At pre-seed and early seed it is team risk, because there is nothing else to inspect. Later it becomes product, then distribution. A fund that underwrites channel economics reads a pre-revenue deck as thin, and a fund that backs founders on conviction reads a metrics-heavy deck as premature. Neither is wrong about you.

Their comparison set. Nobody evaluates you in isolation. A partner compares you to the companies they have already seen in your category, starting with their own portfolio. A firm with three companies adjacent to yours will read you accurately, which is excellent when you are ahead of that set and brutal when you are not. A firm with none will reach for the closest category they know and judge you by a yardstick that does not fit.

Capacity. A fund near the end of its deployment period, or one that has just made three bets in your space, has a full plate regardless of what it thinks of you. This is the hardest of the four to see from outside and the most common cause of a warm meeting that quietly ends.

What to write down per firm

Four columns beat forty.

Fund size and vintage. Typical initial check. One or two portfolio companies that place you in their comparison set. The specific partner, by name, and why that person rather than the firm.

That last one matters more than founders expect. You raise from one individual, who has to carry you into a room you will never enter. Two partners at the same firm can have completely different theses, different track records in your category, and different amounts of internal credibility to spend.

How many, and in what order

Thirty to fifty firms that survive all four filters is a real list. Eighty names pulled from a database is a mailing list.

Then sequence it deliberately. Your best-fit firms should not be your first meetings, because your pitch at meeting one is worse than your pitch at meeting six, and that improvement is free if you spend it on the right firms. Run in waves of ten to fifteen with a fixed window, so replies arrive close enough together to create genuine parallel conversations rather than a slow trickle where every firm knows they are the only one talking to you.

The uncomfortable check

Once the list exists, ask the question founders avoid. Against the companies on it that these firms already backed, where do you actually land?

If you are median on every axis, that is the pass you keep collecting, and a better email sequence will not move it. That is a signal about the round: its size, its price or its timing.

Better to learn it from a spreadsheet in week one than from twenty rejections in week nine.

How CherryPitch does this for you

Researching, finding and vetting one firm properly takes about three hours: tracking down the fund size, the check range and the portfolio overlap, then running all four filters against them. Across eighty firms, almost nobody finishes it, which is why so many seed raises are aimed at firms that were never able to say yes.

CherryPitch reads what your deck signals about stage, scope and risk, then matches you against investors whose fund construction and thesis can actually accommodate it. Every match carries its reasoning, so you can see why a firm fits before you spend a meeting finding out.

Our first-quarter analysis of 1,032 decks found that 48% of first uploads produced no matches at all. Those decks were signalling something different from what their founders believed they said.

Going deeper on each filter

Each of the four filters has its own piece in The Investor’s Logic, our series on the decision models funds actually run on.

FAQ

How many investors should I contact for a seed round?

Thirty to fifty firms that survive real filtering is a working list. The count matters far less than the share of them who could plausibly invest in a company at your stage, size and price.

Should I target the firm or the partner?

The partner. One individual has to argue for you internally, and two partners at the same firm can hold different theses and different amounts of credibility to spend on a new bet.

What is the most common reason a good deck gets no replies?

The list. If most firms on it cannot write your check size at your valuation, or do not buy the risk your stage is selling, response rate collapses regardless of how good the deck is.

How do I find a fund’s check size?

Many publish a range on their site. Recent rounds they led give you a decent estimate, and a direct question on a first call almost always gets a direct answer.

Is it worth contacting large funds at seed?

Only if your round is large enough for their check to reach their ownership target. Otherwise the investment cannot move their fund, and the partner has no reason to spend a board seat on it.

CherryPitch reads your deck the way an investor reads it. Then it shows you which investors your raise fits.